After week of waiting, NBA picture may be changing

Basketball Betting Lines

07/06/2010 -

MIAMI (AP) -After a week, there are now real signs that the NBA's waiting game might soon be ending.

LeBron James has reportedly blinked.

Now Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh almost certainly are near the end of their free-agent roads as well.

ESPN's Chris Broussard, citing anonymous ``independent sources,'' reported Tuesday night that James will announce his future NBA plans during a one-hour special on the network at 9 p.m. Thursday, with proceeds from ad revenue going to charity. Broussard said James' ``representatives'' contacted ESPN and asked for the unusual arrangement, which neither the network nor the two-time MVP's circle would confirm.

Still, that was the clearest indicator yet that what might go down as the most celebrated free-agent period in the history of sports - built entirely around the incessant speculation about James, Wade and Bosh - is nearing a dramatic end.

``It's either going to happen quickly,'' Bosh told The Associated Press on the eve of free agency, ``or it's not.''

It hasn't happened quickly.

But now that James has apparently circled a date on his calendar, things would figure to start moving that way. That would be fantastic news, not only for the team or teams that land the members of the NBA's juggernaut trio, but the 150 or so other free agents who are essentially hostages in this tete-a-tete between stars and suitors.

``I think, obviously, we know who the guys are who are the biggest free agents,'' said guard Chris Quinn, who ended last season with New Jersey before hitting the open market. ``A lot depends on what they do. There's a lot of other players who are free agents who are looking for jobs and working hard and want to get on a good team and win.''

Through Tuesday night, only one so-called marquee guy had picked a new team, Amare Stoudemire leaving Phoenix for the Knicks.

Even something like that didn't register a giant blip across the NBA.

Instead, the waiting game reigned. And by the time James' news broke Tuesday night, Stoudemire almost seemed like ancient history.

``Getting closer,'' is the cryptic message on James' website.

Unless it's the Heat, Cavaliers, Bulls, Knicks, Nets or Raptors, there seems to be almost a sense of ennui across the rest of the league when it comes to the sweepstakes involving James, Bosh and Wade.

It's certainly an unusual time: One corner of the league is waiting to see what the Big 3 will do, and the rest are just trying to improve their own teams.

``It's been going on for a year, guys,'' Orlando Magic general manager Otis Smith said. ``It's kind of hard for me to pay attention this week.''

Kind of hard for many teams not to, either.

``I'm tired of hearing about all that, to be honest with you,'' New Orleans Hornets coach Monty Williams said. ``It's overblown, and we've been talking about it for two years.''

Monty, the end could be near.

Bosh said just before the July 1 start of freeagentmania that he was eager to get the process over with, even indicating that he could reveal his decision before Wade or James announced theirs. Which, now, almost makes sense, in that both Wade and James would like to have Bosh alongside them for years to come in Cleveland, Miami or some other NBA city.

His decision clearly affects both, which even the casual NBA observer surely has realized in recent days.

If Bosh picks Miami, it would immediately ensure that Wade takes the Heat offer of a six-year deal that could be worth around $127 million. If Bosh decides he wants to go to Cleveland and play with James, that might send Wade looking to play in Chicago. If Bosh picks a wild-card city - say Houston - both James and Wade would start recruiting someone else to team with, possibly each other.

And then there's the chance that they all could play together, a scenario that almost certainly could only happen in Miami.

``This summer,'' Wade said back in April, ``is about sharing.''

Sharing the spotlight, perhaps?

Agent Henry Thomas, who represents both Bosh and Wade, says his clients are ``getting closer'' - the exact wording James has on his website.

``We are all becoming weary!'' Thomas wrote in an e-mail to The AP.

Wade didn't make any statements about free agency when he appeared at his youth basketball camp on Tuesday. James hasn't said much of anything in weeks, although nearly 200,000 people signed up for his newly launched Twitter feed on Tuesday.

``Hello World,'' is how James' first Tweet began.

The rest of the NBA might have preferred a ``Hello, Unnamed Team That I Will Sign A Contract With'' Tweet, though.

This much is known: Bosh, James and Wade have all talked about playing with each other. How those conversations went was a mystery, one that would figure to be solved soon enough.

``These guys are all talking to each other,'' Knicks president Donnie Walsh said this week, ``so my feeling is they would all want to play with each other.''

That's all anyone has at this point: A feeling.

``Predicting any of that,'' Magic coach Stan Van Gundy said, ``is almost impossible.''

With each day that passes, the anticipation grows. At least now, a summit is in sight.

``It's just a big summer in general for the NBA,'' Quinn said. ``A lot of excitement for different teams and different players going different places.''

Soon, the big picture will become much clearer.

---

AP Basketball Writer Brian Mahoney in New York contributed to this story.Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.

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Betting Football

NFL Football Betting Online

Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.